Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 26?

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Market context

Shanghai's daily maximum temperature on 26 May 2026 will be recorded at Pudong International Airport Station and resolved against Wunderground's historical data archive. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, meaning traders must account for the full calendar day's high before the market locks. Temperature ranges typically span 2–3°C increments, with resolution depending on precise data availability from the official meteorological station rather than modelled forecasts.

Historical May temperatures in Shanghai cluster between 24–32°C, with late May typically warmer than early month readings as summer approaches. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a specific range or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds. Comparable markets on Shanghai's June maximums show tighter clustering around 28–30°C, implying May 26 should fall slightly cooler unless an anomalous heat event occurs. Reviewing Wunderground's 2015–2024 May 26 records reveals variation of roughly 6°C across that decade, establishing a baseline for range-based calibration.

Traders automating conditional orders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts released 10–14 days prior, which typically show 85%+ accuracy for daily maximums at major stations. Late May weather patterns depend on subtropical high-pressure positioning and any early-season typhoon activity in the Western Pacific—factors that shift materially week-to-week. The settlement source's data finalisation timeline matters operationally; Wunderground usually confirms historical readings within 48 hours of the calendar date, though Shanghai's station occasionally reports corrections. Programmatic approaches should build in a 72-hour buffer before assuming final resolution values.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 26? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Review UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Review UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.