Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 29?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is the highest temperature recorded at Shanghai Pudong International Airport on 29 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius and resolved via Wunderground data. Historical patterns for late June at this station show daily highs typically ranging from 30°C to 35°C on sunny days, while cloudy or rainy conditions often cap temperatures between 25°C and 30°C. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for any specific range suggests traders are either misreading the baseline climatology or betting on an extreme deviation, such as a prolonged heatwave pushing temperatures well above 35°C, which is statistically rare for this period.

A power-user approaching this market programmatically would first ingest historical Wunderground datasets to establish a baseline distribution, then overlay real-time forecasts from sources like the Weather Network, which currently indicates a 25% risk of thunderstorms and light rain on 29 June. Such conditions would likely suppress temperatures toward the lower end of the historical range, making higher temperature brackets less probable. Traders should monitor the Shanghai Meteorological Bureau’s daily 06:00 UTC forecast updates and any sudden shifts in the East Asian monsoon front, as these are the primary catalysts that could alter the temperature outcome. Recent reports from AccuWeather confirm daily highs in late June 2026 are forecast between 26°C and 29°C, reinforcing the likelihood of moderate rather than extreme heat.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 29? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.