Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 27?

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Market context

The underlying event is the peak daytime temperature recorded at Shanghai Pudong International Airport on 27 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius and sourced from Wunderground. Historical data for this location shows daily highs in June typically climb from 77°F to 83°F (25°C to 28°C), rarely dipping below 69°F or exceeding 92°F (33°C) [3]. Summer conditions in Shanghai regularly surpass 30°C (86°F), reaching 35°C (95°F) during the most intense sunny spells [5]. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for a specific high-temperature range appears inconsistent with these established seasonal norms, suggesting the market may be mispricing the likelihood of a standard hot June day.

A power-user evaluating this market programmatically would script a bot to pull real-time METAR data from the National Weather Service for station ZSPD and cross-reference it with Wunderground’s daily history endpoint [2]. Key catalysts to monitor include the onset of the hot season, which officially begins around 17 June and lasts until mid-September, with average daily highs consistently above 80°F (27°C) [6]. Traders should also watch for local weather announcements regarding heatwaves or sudden precipitation shifts, as even light winds and high humidity (84%) can influence peak temperature readings [1]. Recent forecasts for June 2026 indicate daily highs ranging from 80° to 86°F (27°C to 30°C), reinforcing that a 0% probability for a high-temperature outcome is statistically fragile [4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

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How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Review UK?

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Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Review UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.