Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 23?

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Market context

The real-world event hinges on the highest temperature recorded at Shanghai Pudong International Airport on 23 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Historical data confirms that late June falls squarely within Shanghai’s hot season, which runs from mid-June to mid-September, with average daily highs consistently exceeding 80°F (27°C) [3]. Recent forecasts for June 2026 at this station predict daily highs ranging from 77°F to 96°F (25°C to 36°C), while long-term averages show temperatures rarely falling below 69°F (20°C) or exceeding 92°F (33°C) [4][7]. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for a specific temperature range appears inconsistent with these established patterns, suggesting the market may be mispricing the likelihood of extreme heat given the seasonal baseline.

A power-user approaching this market programmatically would monitor real-time weather feeds from Wunderground and cross-reference them with NOAA’s live time-series data for ZSPD, which currently shows light showers and temperatures around 24°C in the early hours [1][2]. Key catalysts include the onset of heavy rain expected later Tuesday, which could suppress peak temperatures, and the broader summer trend where highs regularly exceed 30°C (86°F) during sunny conditions [5]. Traders should watch for sudden shifts in cloud cover or wind direction, as these dependencies directly influence the day’s maximum reading. Recent BBC forecasts indicate heavy rain and a gentle breeze for Tuesday 23rd, with a high of 24°C, which may explain the market’s low probability if participants anticipate significant cooling from precipitation [2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Review UK?

Zero. Polymarket Review UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Review UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.