Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 22?

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Market context

Shanghai Pudong International Airport’s highest temperature on 22 June will be set by the day’s *maximum* reading at the station, not by the afternoon forecast alone, so the key variable is whether brief convection or sea-breeze moderation caps the peak before the settlement window closes. June is already the start of Shanghai’s hot season: average daily highs at Pudong rise through the month from about 77°F to 83°F, and readings above 30°C are common in summer[1][5].

That makes a **0% YES** price look consistent with a market that is still effectively waiting for a realised observation rather than a broad climatological signal. In practical terms, a power-user would model this as a single-site, single-day extremes event: ingest the Pudong airport hourly forecast, then watch the realised hourly progression for whether the day’s high is likely to print in the upper 20s or low 30s Celsius. Recent forecast products for the airport already point to a warm, unstable setup, with an afternoon thunderstorm risk and a forecast high around the upper 20s °C, which matters because cloud cover and rain can hold down the eventual maximum[7].

For traders using bots or conditional orders, the useful triggers are the same ones that move the airport’s hourly high path: updated Wunderground history entries, the local forecast cycle, and any shift in thunderstorm timing, since the market resolves off the highest temperature recorded at Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station on the day[2]. Programmatically, this is a straightforward scrape-and-compare job against the station’s intraday high, with alerts set for forecast revisions and early-morning warming that can change the implied band before the settlement cut-off[2][8].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Review UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.