Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 20?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is the highest temperature recorded at Shanghai Pudong International Airport on 20 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius and sourced from Wunderground. Historically, late June in Shanghai marks the onset of the hot season, with daily highs typically rising from 77°F to 83°F and rarely dipping below 69°F or exceeding 92°F[3]. Summer highs regularly surpass 30°C, reaching 35°C during sunny periods[5]. Given this consistent pattern, a crowd-implied probability of 0% for any temperature range appears statistically anomalous, suggesting either a data error or a misinterpretation of the market’s resolution criteria by current traders.

A programmatic trader should monitor real-time Wunderground feeds for the Pudong station, cross-referencing with BBC Weather alerts for thundery showers or light rain that could suppress peak temperatures[2]. Recent orange alerts issued by the Shanghai Meteorological Center after consecutive high-temperature days indicate active monitoring of extreme heat, though the reported 60°C figure is likely a misstatement given physical limits[6]. Traders must also track the settlement window deadline of 12:00 UTC on 20 June 2026, ensuring automated scripts capture the exact daily maximum before the cutoff. The hot season officially begins 17 June and lasts until 16 September, with average highs above 80°F throughout[8], reinforcing that non-zero temperatures are the expected norm.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Review UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.