Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 13?

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Market context

Shanghai's daily maximum temperature on 13 June 2026 will be recorded at Pudong International Airport Station and resolved against historical Weather Underground data. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, meaning traders must account for the full calendar day's temperature range before the market locks. June sits within Shanghai's early summer period, when daytime highs typically range between 28–32°C, though heat waves can push readings several degrees higher.

The 0% crowd probability reflects the market's nascent state rather than climatic certainty. Historical precedent shows Shanghai regularly records June maxima above 30°C; the city experienced 35°C+ readings on multiple dates in June 2022 and 2023. Traders building conditional orders or bot-driven strategies should cross-reference the China Meteorological Administration's seasonal forecasts alongside Weather Underground's historical volatility patterns for this station. The resolution methodology—using a single airport station rather than city-wide averages—introduces locational specificity that can diverge from broader Shanghai readings by 1–2°C depending on microclimatic factors.

Programmatic traders should monitor late-May weather models and early-June atmospheric pressure systems, as subtropical high-pressure ridges typically drive temperature extremes across eastern China during this window. The East Asian summer monsoon's onset timing, usually tracked by meteorological services in May, acts as a leading indicator for June heat intensity. API access to historical station data via Weather Underground allows backtesting against comparable years, enabling more precise range calibration before the settlement window closes.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 13? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Review UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.