Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai’s highest temperature on 7 July 2026 will be recorded at the Pudong International Airport station, with settlement based on the peak Celsius reading for that day from Wunderground. The market currently implies a 0% chance of the “YES” outcome, suggesting the crowd expects the temperature to fall outside the specified range.

Historically, July is Shanghai’s hottest month, with average highs near 34°C and frequent peaks exceeding 35°C under clear skies[4][5]. In recent years, daily maximums at Pudong have regularly reached 33–36°C during early July, making a sub-30°C day unusual unless heavy rain or cloud cover persists[1][2]. The current 0% probability likely reflects confidence that temperatures will stay within the expected summer band, not that an extreme cold snap is anticipated.

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground and short-term forecasts from sources like AccuWeather, which project July highs between 34°C and 38°C for Shanghai in 2026[9]. Key dependencies include the timing of cloud cover, precipitation, and wind direction—particularly SSE flows that can moderate heat[3]. A programmatically sound approach would involve polling Wunderground’s hourly history API at settlement, comparing the day’s peak against the range, and automating position adjustments if forecast models shift significantly before 12:00 UTC.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 7? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.