Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai will record its peak daily temperature at the Pudong International Airport Station on 20 July 2026, with the market resolving to the specific Celsius range containing that figure. The settlement relies on Wunderground’s historical daily data for the ZSPD station, capturing the highest reading across all times of that day.

Historical July averages in Shanghai range from 27°C to 36°C, with the month frequently ranking as the city’s hottest period [2]. Given this baseline, the current crowd-implied probability of 0% for a YES outcome suggests traders are pricing in a specific threshold breach that aligns with typical extremes rather than an anomaly. In comparable years, temperatures consistently hit the mid-30s, making ranges like 35°C the statistically probable resolution rather than lower bands such as 28°C or below [1].

Programmatic traders should monitor real-time Wunderground feeds for the ZSPD station as the settlement window closes at 12:00:00Z on 20 July 2026, automating conditional orders to capture mispriced ranges before the final data point locks. No external announcements or schedules drive this event; the sole dependency is the automated weather log update. Since precipitation averages 130 mm across 12–14 rainy days in July, traders must account for potential cooling from rain events, though the dominant trend remains high heat [2]. The utility lies in scripting bots to scrape the live history page and execute trades against the closing timestamp, treating the market as a pure data-verification play rather than a news-driven catalyst.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Review UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.