Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market tracks the peak temperature recorded at Shanghai Pudong International Airport on 17 July 2026, with settlement dependent on Wunderground’s daily high for that specific station. Today’s current conditions show overcast skies with a temperature of 31°C and a high 80% probability of rain, which historically suppresses peak daytime highs in mid-July Shanghai. The 0% YES probability implies the crowd expects the temperature to fall outside the defined range, likely because wet, cloudy conditions are preventing the extreme heat typically seen in this period.

Historical data for mid-July at ZSPD usually sees maximums between 34°C and 38°C, as seen in recent forecasts projecting a 38°C peak under clearer skies [2]. However, the current overcast and rain risk align with cooler patterns where highs rarely exceed 32°C, supporting the market’s bearish stance. Traders evaluating this programmatically should script a monitor for Wunderground’s hourly updates, flagging deviations from the 34°C threshold as the primary settlement trigger.

Key catalysts include the timing and duration of today’s thunderstorm activity, which could cap the day’s maximum well below seasonal norms. Meteorological models indicate scattered thunderstorms and broken clouds at 1500ft, which directly limit solar heating [2]. A power-user would automate a conditional order to close positions if real-time data from Wunderground confirms the high remains under 33°C by 10:00 local time, as this would lock in the outcome before the 12:00 UTC settlement window closes.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Review UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.