Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai's daily maximum temperature on 20 August 2026 will be measured at Pudong International Airport Station and recorded in Weather Underground's Daily Observations table. The market resolves to whichever temperature band contains that single highest reading, with the Daily Observations data taking precedence over any conflicting summary figures. This distinction matters operationally: automated systems querying Weather Underground's API must target the correct endpoint to avoid settlement disputes.

August represents Shanghai's peak summer season, with historical daily highs typically ranging between 32–35°C during this period. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders expect temperatures to fall outside whatever upper threshold this market defines, though without the specific temperature bands visible, the baseline assumption is that extreme heat above 36–37°C remains statistically unlikely for a single day. Comparable August readings from prior years show occasional spikes above 35°C but sustained extremes are rare; checking archived Pudong data from August 2015–2024 provides the empirical foundation for calibrating position sizing.

Traders monitoring this market should track China Meteorological Administration forecasts and tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific, both of which influence Shanghai's late-summer weather patterns. Any typhoon system moving within 1,000 kilometres typically suppresses temperatures through cloud cover and precipitation. Real-time feeds from weather APIs can be integrated into conditional order logic to adjust positions as the settlement date approaches; the two-month lead time allows sufficient data accumulation to refine probability estimates against historical volatility bands specific to Pudong station records.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.