Highest temperature in Seoul on June 29?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event driving this market is the peak daytime temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 29 June 2026, which will determine whether the outcome falls into the range implied by the current 18% YES probability. Programmatic traders approaching this tooling would typically ingest Wunderground’s historical daily data for the RKSI station, filter for the maximum temperature across all timestamps on that day, and convert the result to Celsius using the gear icon settings before executing conditional orders.

Historical context frames the current probability as conservative given Korea’s accelerating heat trend. The three hottest summers on record—1994, 2018, and 2024—each surpassed the previous peak, with the World Meteorological Organisation flagging South Korea as experiencing its hottest summer in 2024[1]. Seoul itself reached 39.6°C in August 2018, breaking its prior record of 38.4°C[6], while June 2025 saw record-breaking heat in 59 cities, including 35.8°C in Seoul[2][9]. The all-time national record of 41.0°C was set in Hongcheon in 2024[3][4], suggesting that temperatures near or above 35°C are increasingly plausible in late June.

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s daily heatwave forecasts and any official advisories issued ahead of 29 June, as these directly influence settlement outcomes. Recent reports confirm South Korea recorded its highest average summertime temperature since records began, with Hongcheon hitting 41°C on the same day as the national June peak[4]. A programmatically robust approach would cross-reference these advisories with real-time Wunderground feeds for RKSI, ensuring conditional orders trigger only when forecasted maxima align with the target range.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on June 29? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.