Highest temperature in Seoul on June 26?

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Market context

The real-world event hinges on the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 26 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius and resolved via Wunderground data. This single metric determines the market outcome, with the settlement window closing at 12:00 UTC on that date. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for temperatures reaching 31°C or higher suggests traders view such a spike as highly improbable given baseline climatology.

Historical June data for Seoul shows daily highs typically rising from 77°F to 81°F (25°C to 27°C), rarely exceeding 87°F (31°C) [2]. While South Korea experienced record-breaking heat in July 2025, with averages 2.9°C above the 1991–2020 norm [3], and 59 stations recorded unprecedented June highs in a recent heatwave [5], the 31°C threshold remains an outlier for Incheon specifically. Recent forecasts for June 2026 in Seoul indicate highs between 84°F and 92°F (29°C–33°C), yet Incheon’s coastal location often moderates extremes compared to inland areas [7].

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s daily heat advisories and any sudden shifts in monsoon patterns, which could suppress temperatures. A recent report from The Korea Herald noted that June heat shattered records across 59 stations, but this does not guarantee Incheon will follow the same trajectory [5]. Programmatically, one would ingest Wunderground’s hourly data for RKSI, apply a rolling maximum filter for the 24-hour period, and cross-reference with real-time KMA alerts to validate whether the 31°C barrier is breached. Conditional orders could be triggered if humidity spikes above 80% alongside rising solar irradiance, though current data suggests such a combination is unlikely before noon.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on June 26? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Review UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

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On Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

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How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.