Highest temperature in Seoul on June 25?

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Market context

The real-world event driving this market is the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 25 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius and resolved via Wunderground data. Despite the crowd-implied probability of 0% for a "YES" outcome (likely misinterpreted as a specific low threshold), the market frontrunner is 26°C at 37%, with 27°C trailing at 33%, reflecting a strong expectation of mid-to-high summer heat rather than cold conditions.

Historical patterns in Seoul during June show daily highs typically rising from 77°F to 81°F (25°C to 27°C), rarely dipping below 68°F (20°C) or exceeding 87°F (31°C), with recent data confirming a peak of 91°F (32.8°C) on 19 June 2026 [2][3]. This aligns with South Korea’s record-breaking June 2025, which saw the hottest average temperature since 1973 at 22.9°C, suggesting a continued warming trend that supports probabilities above 25°C [5].

Traders should monitor daily weather forecasts from AccuWeather, which project June 2026 highs between 78°F and 91°F (25.5°C to 32.8°C), and watch for any sudden shifts in solar radiation or cloud cover that could suppress temperatures [7]. Programmatically, one would automate data pulls from Wunderground’s daily history API for RKSI, cross-reference with real-time forecasts, and execute conditional orders based on deviations from the 26–27°C range, treating the 0% crowd signal as a likely mispricing of the low-end threshold rather than a rejection of heat.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Review UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.