Highest temperature in Seoul on June 24?

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Market context

On 24 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport will determine the outcome of this prediction market, with the crowd currently assigning zero probability to the “YES” condition. This real-world event hinges on a single day’s meteorological data, sourced from Wunderground, and reflects the intense summer heat typical of the Korean peninsula during late June.

Historically, Seoul’s June highs climb steadily from 77°F to 81°F, rarely dipping below 68°F or exceeding 87°F[1]. Just five days prior, on 19 June 2026, the region hit 91°F, marking the peak temperature for that period[2]. Nationwide, 59 out of 97 weather stations recorded their highest June averages ever between Saturday and Monday, underscoring a pattern of record-breaking heat[5]. These comparable cases suggest that while extreme temperatures are plausible, the current 0% probability may reflect an overcorrection or lack of confidence in the specific threshold being tested.

Traders should monitor the North Pacific high-pressure system, which drives hot, humid conditions capable of pushing temperatures toward 35°C (95°F) in summer[4]. A recent report from The Korea Herald notes that June heat has already shattered records across South Korea, with widespread anomalies in daily averages[5]. Programmatically, this market would be approached by parsing Wunderground’s daily history API for Incheon, filtering for the maximum temperature at any time on 24 June, and comparing it against the defined range. Conditional orders could be triggered based on real-time updates from weather stations, ensuring alignment with the settlement window ending 2026-06-24T12:00:00Z.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on June 24? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Review UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Review UK?

Zero. Polymarket Review UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Review UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.