Highest temperature in Seoul on June 21?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The settlement depends on the **highest temperature at Incheon International Airport Station** on 21 June, rather than Seoul city generally, so the practical task is to track the airport station’s daily maximum in Celsius on the Wunderground history page and map it to the market’s discrete temperature bands. At 09:00 UTC, the crowd is still effectively pricing a **0% YES** outcome, which is consistent with a market that often stays thin until the day’s maximum becomes more legible from morning forecasts and observed warming later in the local afternoon. [1]

For historical framing, June in Seoul typically produces daytime highs in the upper 20s Celsius, with average highs rising from about 25°C to 27°C through the month and rarely exceeding the high 30s in the climatology cited by Weather Spark. That makes single-degree outcomes around **26–28°C** the natural cluster for a programmatic model, especially if you are automating against forecast feeds and only widening into hotter bins when synoptic heat builds. South Korea has also logged extreme summer heat in recent years, including nationally significant records, but those events are outliers rather than the base rate for a late-June daily maximum. [2][3]

A trader watching this mechanically should focus on the local forecast cycle, cloud cover, sea-breeze timing, and any heat advisories that emerge from Korean meteorological updates, because those are the variables most likely to shift the airport’s maximum by one or two degrees. The key dependency is not just the headline Seoul forecast, but whether Incheon’s coastal exposure caps the afternoon peak below the city core; that is the sort of distinction a rules-driven bot or conditional order can exploit by updating probabilities only after the late-morning model runs and again once the local temperature trend is clear. [1][2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on June 21? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Review UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

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On Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

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How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

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