Highest temperature in Seoul on June 20?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The key variable is the *maximum temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport* on 20 June, with settlement tied to the Wunderground daily-history reading rather than a forecast. For a programme that scores markets mechanically, the practical approach is to map the likely temperature band against the site’s Celsius output and compare it with the contract’s bins, then update the estimate only when the day is materially past and the observed high has stopped climbing.

Historically, June in Seoul is warm but not usually extreme: long-run guides put Seoul’s June daytime highs around 26°C, with typical ranges around 19–28°C and increasing humidity as the month progresses.[1][2][3][4] That makes a zero-per-cent “YES” price hard to reconcile with climate norms if the contract’s target band covers ordinary early-summer highs. The more relevant question is whether the airport station’s actual daily maximum lands in a narrower range than traders expect, since coastal and airport locations can run a little cooler than central Seoul, and late-June heat spikes are still possible when the seasonal warming trend strengthens.[2][3][7]

For live trading, the main catalysts are the Korea Meteorological Administration’s short-range forecasts and any mention of a strengthening warm spell, cloud cover, or rain band before the close of the settlement window.[5] A power-user workflow is to poll the forecast and then backtest against recent June daily highs at RKSI, because a single warm afternoon or a cloudy, rainy day can shift the final high by several degrees. If later forecasts show a ceiling in the low 20s rather than the upper 20s, the market should stay anchored near cooler temperature bins; if the forecast tips into the high 20s with clear skies, the upper bins become more relevant.[5][9]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Review UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Review UK?

Zero. Polymarket Review UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.