Highest temperature in Seoul on June 19?

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Market context

The event is the **highest temperature at Incheon International Airport Station on 19 June 2026**, with settlement tied to the daily peak reported by Wunderground for RKSI rather than the citywide reading. That distinction matters for programmatic tracking: a trader building a bot or conditional order logic should key off the airport station feed and the day’s maximum, not Seoul averages or evening conditions that arrive after the settlement window closes.

June in Seoul and north-western South Korea is usually **warm and humid**, but still sits in the shoulder between spring-like comfort and full midsummer heat. Typical June daytime temperatures for Seoul are around **19–28°C**, while monthly forecast-style ranges commonly extend into the low 30s Celsius in hotter spells; that makes a single-day high above the high-20s plausible, but not the default case. In market terms, a 0% YES price implies the crowd sees either the wrong unit, a mis-specified threshold, or a very unlikely weather outcome, so the first check is whether the contract’s temperature band aligns with the historical distribution of late-June highs.

For catalysts, the practical watchlist is short: short-range forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration, any heat or rain updates ahead of the 19th, and whether showers or cloud cover suppress the daytime maximum at the airport. Wunderground’s station-level history is the settlement source, so a power-user would monitor hourly forecast revisions and airport-specific observations, then map them to the market’s temperature buckets rather than Seoul city forecasts. Heavy rain or a post-frontal air-mass change would matter most if it arrives before the afternoon peak; once the daily maximum is set, later conditions are irrelevant.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Review UK?

Zero. Polymarket Review UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.