Highest temperature in Seoul on June 17?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Seoul's weather on 17 June 2026 will be measured at Incheon International Airport Station, with the market resolving to whichever temperature band captures the day's peak. The settlement mechanism pulls directly from Weather Underground's historical records, requiring traders to verify the Celsius toggle is active before cross-referencing the official reading. This creates a straightforward data-verification workflow: confirm the station location, check the timestamp convention (the market closes at 12:00 UTC, though the temperature reading covers the full calendar day), and validate the source URL returns the expected format.

Mid-June in Seoul typically sits within a 23–28°C range, though heat waves occasionally push readings into the low 30s. Historical June data from Incheon shows that extreme outliers above 32°C occur roughly once per decade, whilst temperatures below 20°C are rare but possible during unsettled weather patterns. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either absent from this market or treating it as a placeholder; comparable weather markets on this platform show meaningful activity only when settlement approaches within 72 hours.

Traders building automated monitoring systems should note that Weather Underground updates historical records with a lag of 24–48 hours post-event, meaning conditional orders tied to real-time feeds will require a secondary verification step. Seasonal weather forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration typically become reliable 10–14 days before the target date. Setting up a bot to track ensemble model consensus (GFS, ECMWF) in early June would allow programmatic position adjustments as atmospheric patterns crystallise.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on June 17? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Review UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Review UK?

Zero. Polymarket Review UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Review UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.