Highest temperature in Seoul on June 16?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Seoul experiences a pronounced early-summer warming pattern by mid-June, with average daily highs around 26–28°C at Incheon International Airport, the official measurement station. The settlement window closes at noon UTC on 16 June 2026, meaning the market captures the peak temperature recorded up to that point in the local day. Historical records show that June 16 temperatures at Incheon have ranged from 20°C in cooler years to 32°C during heat waves, with most outcomes clustering between 24–29°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a specific range or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds across the full temperature spectrum.

For programmatic traders, the key dependency is South Korea's meteorological forecast trajectory in the ten days preceding settlement. The Korea Meteorological Administration publishes extended outlooks that typically stabilise three to five days before the target date. Mid-June sits at the boundary between spring and monsoon season; early arrival of the East Asian summer monsoon system can suppress temperatures through cloud cover and precipitation, whilst high-pressure systems from the northwest drive heat spikes. Real-time monitoring of synoptic charts from the National Centre for Environmental Prediction and local weather station data feeds will sharpen probability estimates closer to the event. Traders building conditional orders should anchor to the historical interquartile range of 25–29°C whilst maintaining sensitivity to anomalous pressure patterns emerging in the preceding fortnight.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Review UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Review UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.