Highest temperature in Seoul on June 15?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Seoul's weather on 15 June 2026 will be measured at Incheon International Airport's official meteorological station, with the day's peak temperature determining which range the market resolves to. June in Seoul typically sits within the warm-to-hot band, with historical highs clustering between 28–32°C as the city transitions into early summer. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either absent from this market or treating it as a placeholder awaiting liquidity; this is common for weather markets with distant settlement dates where real-time atmospheric data remains too uncertain for confident positioning.

Historical June temperatures at Incheon show considerable year-to-year variance. The past decade's records reveal highs ranging from 25°C in cooler years to 34°C during heat waves, with the modal outcome sitting around 29–30°C. For programmatic traders, this suggests building conditional orders anchored to seasonal normals rather than betting on extremes without supporting catalysts. The Korea Meteorological Administration publishes seasonal outlooks typically in May, which would be the primary catalyst for adjusting expectations ahead of mid-June; traders monitoring ENSO indices and regional pressure patterns in spring 2026 would have actionable signals before this market's settlement window opens.

Wunderground's historical data structure allows straightforward API integration for automated resolution verification, making this market suitable for bot-based settlement workflows. The Incheon station's continuous recording means no ambiguity around measurement methodology—a practical advantage for conditional order logic that might otherwise require manual oversight.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Review UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.