Highest temperature in Seoul on June 13?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Seoul's peak temperature on 13 June 2026 will be measured at Incheon International Airport Station and resolved against historical Weather Underground data. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, meaning traders must account for the full calendar day's readings across all hours before the cutoff. For programmatic resolution, the data source is deterministic and publicly accessible via Weather Underground's history interface, making this suitable for conditional orders or automated monitoring scripts that poll the API at settlement time.

Historical June temperatures in Seoul cluster around 23–28°C, with occasional peaks reaching 30°C during early summer heat waves. The 1% probability currently implied by the crowd suggests traders are pricing in an exceptionally narrow outcome band—likely the highest range bracket. Comparable markets on Seoul summer temperatures typically see probability mass distributed across multiple temperature bands; the concentration here indicates either strong consensus on a specific range or sparse liquidity. June typically marks the transition into the monsoon season, which can suppress daily highs through cloud cover and precipitation.

The Korea Meteorological Administration publishes 10-day forecasts and seasonal outlooks; traders should monitor their mid-May and early-June bulletins for any anomalous pressure patterns or heat dome positioning over the Korean peninsula. El Niño or La Niña phase strength influences East Asian summer temperatures, though June forecasting confidence remains moderate. Real-time tracking via Weather Underground's hourly data feed allows traders to assess intraday temperature trajectories and adjust positions if conditions diverge sharply from seasonal norms in the days preceding settlement.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Review UK?

Zero. Polymarket Review UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Review UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.