Highest temperature in Seoul on June 12?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Seoul's weather on 12 June 2026 will be measured at Incheon International Airport Station, with the settlement hinging on which temperature bracket captures the day's peak reading in Celsius. The market structure requires traders to identify the correct range rather than predict an exact figure, making historical temperature distributions the primary analytical tool. Wunderground's historical database provides the baseline for calibration; accessing the data programmatically requires parsing daily maximum temperatures from the station's archive across multiple Junes to establish seasonal norms and variance patterns.

Mid-June in Seoul typically falls within the early monsoon transition period, with average highs around 26–28°C, though readings can spike into the low 30s during heat waves or remain suppressed by cloud cover and precipitation. The 0% implied probability suggests traders are either avoiding the market entirely or treating it as a calibration exercise rather than a genuine forecast opportunity. For systematic approaches, integrating Korea Meteorological Administration forecasts with Wunderground's historical volatility would establish conditional triggers—particularly watching for high-pressure systems developing in early June that could drive temperatures toward the upper ranges, or conversely, early monsoon onset that would suppress maxima.

Traders building automated monitoring systems should note that Wunderground updates historical data with a lag; verification of settlement data should account for potential corrections within 48 hours of the resolution window closing. The settlement source's accessibility and update frequency make this market suitable for bot-based tracking, though the lack of current trading activity suggests limited liquidity for execution at scale.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Review UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Review UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.