Highest temperature in Seoul on June 11?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Seoul's weather on 11 June 2026 will be measured at Incheon International Airport's official weather station, with the day's peak temperature determining which range the market resolves to. The settlement mechanism relies on Wunderground's historical weather database, which aggregates readings from this station across all daylight and evening hours. Traders will need to verify the exact timestamp and methodology Wunderground uses when recording daily highs, as discrepancies between stations or measurement protocols can shift outcomes across range boundaries.

June in Seoul typically sits within 23–28°C, though early summer heat waves occasionally push readings into the low 30s. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a specific range or insufficient liquidity drawing traders to this particular market. Historical data from the Korea Meteorological Administration shows June 11 has averaged around 24–26°C over the past decade, with outlier years reaching 29–31°C during unusual pressure systems. Reviewing Wunderground's five-year archive for this date provides the most reliable baseline for calibrating position sizing.

Traders automating this market should monitor the Korean Meteorological Administration's 10-day forecasts, which typically become reliable four to five days before settlement. Typhoon activity in the Western Pacific during early June can dramatically alter Seoul's temperature trajectory, whilst high-pressure systems anchored over China tend to elevate readings. Setting conditional orders tied to KMA forecast updates or specific pressure-level thresholds would allow systematic exposure without manual monitoring through to the 12 June settlement window.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on June 11? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Review UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Review UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.