Highest temperature in Seoul on July 25?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul's peak temperature on 25 July 2026 will be recorded at Incheon International Airport's official weather station and resolved against historical data via Wunderground's archive. July is Seoul's hottest month, with average highs around 29°C, though the city regularly experiences heat waves pushing temperatures above 33°C. The settlement mechanism ties directly to a single, verifiable data point—the maximum temperature logged across all hours on that specific date—making this a straightforward instrumental market for weather forecasting workflows.

Historical July temperatures in Seoul show considerable variance year-on-year. The 2018 heat wave produced a record 39.6°C at Seoul's central observatory; however, Incheon Airport Station, located further west and nearer the coast, typically records slightly cooler maxima due to maritime influence. Over the past decade, Incheon's July highs have ranged from 28°C to 37°C, with extremes occurring during sustained high-pressure systems. Traders evaluating this market programmatically should cross-reference seasonal climate indices and multi-model ensemble forecasts from June onwards, as these provide early signals for anomalous heat patterns.

The 0% crowd probability reflects the market's distance from present conditions and the inherent uncertainty in long-range weather prediction. Relevant catalysts include the East Asian summer monsoon onset timing, tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific, and the strength of the Tibetan high-pressure system—all typically observable by late June. Automated systems tracking this market should integrate real-time model consensus from services like NOAA's GFS and ECMWF, which become meaningfully predictive roughly two weeks before settlement.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on July 25? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Review UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.