Highest temperature in Seoul on July 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul’s peak heat on 15 July 2026 hinges on a single reading from Incheon International Airport, the official benchmark for the city’s summer climate. The market resolves to the Celsius range containing the day’s highest temperature at that station, sourced exclusively from Wunderground’s daily history for RKSI. With the crowd-implied probability for any YES outcome sitting at 0%, the current pricing suggests the market expects either a technical failure in data retrieval or an extreme outlier that defies all historical norms, though the latter is statistically improbable for mid-July in this region.

Historical data from the last decade shows Seoul’s mid-July highs consistently cluster between 28°C and 35°C, with Incheon often recording slightly lower peaks than central Seoul due to its coastal position. A 0% probability is anomalous for a weather event with such a robust historical baseline; it typically signals a misunderstanding of the resolution rules or a belief that the settlement window will close before data is published. Programmatic traders should verify the Wunderground API’s latency for RKSI, as automated bots often discard markets where the resolution source appears inaccessible or where the timestamp logic conflicts with the settlement deadline of 2026-07-15T12:00:00Z.

Key catalysts include the daily release schedule of Wunderground’s historical data, which usually updates within 24 hours of the event, and any regional meteorological announcements from the Korea Meteorological Administration regarding heatwaves. Traders running conditional orders must monitor the 12:00 UTC settlement cutoff closely, as a delay in data publication could trigger an unresolved outcome rather than a temperature range resolution. Recent forecasts from the Korean weather service indicate typical summer convection patterns for the region, reinforcing that the 0% pricing likely reflects a tooling error rather than a genuine meteorological expectation of impossible temperatures [1].

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on July 15? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Review UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.