Highest temperature in Seoul on July 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul experiences peak summer heat in mid-July, with daily highs typically ranging between 28–32°C during this period. The settlement mechanism uses Incheon International Airport's weather station as the official reference point, which sits approximately 50 kilometres west of central Seoul and often records slightly cooler temperatures than the city centre due to maritime influence. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the exact temperature thresholds available or treating this as a calibration exercise rather than a genuine forecast opportunity.

Historical July data from Incheon shows considerable year-to-year variation. The station recorded 34.2°C on 14 July 2018 and 31.8°C on the same date in 2019, illustrating the 2–3°C swings common in mid-summer. Traders evaluating this market programmatically should cross-reference Wunderground's historical archives against Korea Meteorological Administration records to establish baseline distributions and identify whether the available temperature brackets align with observed frequencies. The current probability distribution suggests either sparse liquidity or disagreement about which temperature bands carry meaningful probability mass.

Monitoring the Korean Meteorological Administration's extended forecasts from early July will provide the primary signal for seasonal patterns. Traders building conditional orders should note that Wunderground's data feed updates daily and requires manual verification of the Celsius toggle setting—a common source of settlement disputes. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 14 July 2026, which falls mid-afternoon Korean time, allowing final observations before resolution.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Review UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.