Highest temperature in Seoul on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market hinges on the peak temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 13 July 2026, a critical metric for Seoul’s summer climate. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% YES, suggesting traders expect the temperature to fall outside the specific range offered, despite Seoul’s volatile early-July heat patterns.

Historical data frames this low probability as potentially mispriced. In early July 2023, Seoul hit 37.8°C, the hottest early-July reading in 117 years, while 2025 saw 22 consecutive “tropical nights” with overnight temperatures exceeding 25°C[1][4]. Average July highs in Seoul typically reach 27–30°C, rarely exceeding 33°C, but extreme spikes like the 37.7°C recorded in 2023 demonstrate the region’s capacity for sudden surges[5][7]. Programmatically, traders should backtest Wunderground’s RKSI station history against broader Gangwon province records, where South Korea’s all-time peak of 41.0°C was observed, to identify range vulnerabilities[6].

Key catalysts include the Korea Meteorological Administration’s daily 06:00 UTC forecasts and real-time Wunderground updates for RKSI, which settle the market[3]. Traders must monitor humidity trends and the East Asian monsoon’s progression, as stagnant air masses often trigger heatwaves. A recent Anadolu Ajansson report confirmed Seoul’s 2023 record-breaking 37.7°C early-July spike, underscoring the risk of underestimating outlier events[7]. Conditional orders should trigger if 24-hour forecasts exceed 35°C, leveraging the station’s proximity to Seoul’s urban heat island effect.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Review UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.