Highest temperature in Seoul on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is the peak daytime temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 10 July 2026, which will determine the settlement of this prediction market. Despite the crowd-implied probability of 0% for a "YES" outcome on a specific range, the market currently frontruns at 28°C with a 36% chance, followed closely by 29°C at 24%, suggesting traders are pricing in a significant heatwave rather than dismissing the event entirely[1].

Historical data frames this probability against a backdrop of record-breaking tropical nights; Seoul recently experienced 22 consecutive nights above 25°C, shattering a century-old record and indicating that heat is lingering well into the early morning hours[2]. Average July highs in Seoul typically reach 85°F (29.4°C), rarely falling below 74°F, while the region has witnessed all-time peaks of 41.0°C in neighbouring provinces, confirming that 28°C is a plausible, not improbable, threshold for mid-July[3][5].

A programme trader should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s daily forecast schedules and real-time Wunderground data feeds for the Incheon station, as these are the definitive resolution sources[3]. Recent reports from Anadolu Ajansı highlight that Seoul reached 37.7°C in early July, the highest in 117 years, serving as a critical catalyst for traders to watch if similar atmospheric conditions persist into the settlement window[7]. Automated bots should be configured to trigger conditional orders based on deviations from the 5.8 kWh solar energy baseline, which remains constant throughout July and drives daytime heating[5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on July 10? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Review UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.