Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

The measurable event is the **highest air temperature** recorded at Incheon International Airport on 2 August, with settlement based on the Wunderground daily history page rather than headline city forecasts. For a programme that auto-reads the market, the key practical issue is that the result is a single-day maximum, so intraday spikes, brief clear-sky breaks, and the exact station location matter more than broad Seoul weather averages; the current crowd price of 0% YES is therefore only a snapshot of a market that will be re-marked as observed data comes in.[2]

Historical context points to a hot but not extraordinary late-summer setup. August averages for Seoul and Incheon typically sit in the low 30s Celsius at the top end, with humidity often keeping perceived heat elevated even when the raw maximum is less dramatic.[6][14] Today’s crowd pricing should be read against official warnings of a widespread heatwave across South Korea, with the state weather agency and Reuters reporting national highs above 40°C elsewhere and Seoul/Incheon forecasts in the low-to-mid 30s, which makes outcomes around 32–35°C the most plausible programme inputs for model-based traders.[12][3][5]

The main catalysts are the Korea Meteorological Administration short-range updates, any shift in cloud cover or rainfall timing, and whether the heat ridge weakens or holds through the afternoon peak.[4][7] A bot or conditional-order workflow would typically watch the KMA forecast cycle, compare it with station-level observations, and trigger only when a revised daily maximum becomes likely enough to affect the relevant Celsius bucket before the settlement cut-off; recent coverage from Yonhap, Reuters, and Asia Business Daily shows the heat pattern has remained intense and persistent, but also that local highs can diverge materially by city and airport station.[3][10][12][16]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.