Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

The event is the highest daytime temperature at Incheon International Airport on 1 August, measured by the station and settled from the day’s peak reading rather than a closing snapshot. For a programme-driven trader, the key task is to monitor the station feed through the day, compare it with nearby synoptic conditions, and update only when the observed maximum changes; the market is therefore more about intraday extremes than late-day averages.

The present 0% implied yes probability sits against a climate backdrop that makes early-August warmth normal, but not automatically extreme. Seoul’s August average high is around 29°C, while Incheon’s monthly average is similar, and historic records show the city can get well above the seasonal norm when heatwaves build across the peninsula.[11][12][19] Seoul’s all-time August record reached 39.6°C on 1 August 2018, underlining that early August can produce outsized spikes when a strong heat dome sits over South Korea.[1][9][15]

For catalysts, the obvious watchlist is the Korea Meteorological Administration’s short-range and medium-range guidance, plus any heatwave advisories, which often flag whether a hot morning can translate into a stronger afternoon maximum.[14] On the day, programme users would typically poll the Wunderground history page, or trigger alerts off successive station updates, because cloud cover, onshore flow, and rain bands can cap the high quickly even when the morning is already tropical.[3][6][8]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 1? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Review UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.