Highest temperature in Seattle on May 24?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Seattle's maximum temperature on 24 May 2026 will be recorded at Sea-Tac Airport and resolved against historical weather data. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, meaning traders have until the morning of 25 May to assess final readings before the market locks. Wunderground's historical database provides the authoritative source, accessible via the station identifier KSEA, with temperature toggleable between Fahrenheit and Celsius through the platform's settings interface.

May temperatures in Seattle typically range between 60–75°F, with historical highs occasionally reaching the low 80s. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either extreme confidence in cooler conditions or uncertainty about which temperature band will resolve. Comparable May days at Sea-Tac show that readings above 80°F occur roughly once every three to four years during this month; the 30-year average high sits around 71°F. A trader building a conditional order strategy would benefit from anchoring expectations to this baseline rather than assuming outlier heat events.

The National Weather Service Pacific Northwest office publishes extended forecasts roughly ten days ahead, with updates every six hours. Late-May weather patterns in the Pacific Northwest remain influenced by marine air masses and jet stream positioning; any ridge of high pressure moving inland would be the primary catalyst for above-average temperatures. Traders monitoring NOAA's Climate Prediction Center outlooks in mid-May would gain early signal on whether anomalous warmth is likely, allowing programmatic position adjustments before the settlement window tightens.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seattle on May 24? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.