Highest temperature in Seattle on July 22?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seattle–Tacoma International Airport’s recorded high on 22 July 2026 will be the settlement input, so the practical task for traders is to reconcile the final Wunderground history page rather than general city forecasts. The market is currently effectively locked on **94–95°F**, with the competing lower band priced at **0%**, which means the crowd is treating the day’s peak as already determined from the observed airport data. [1]

For historical framing, late-July Seattle highs often sit in the 70s or low 80s, but occasional warm ridges can push the airport into the 90s, and that is the regime implied here. For a power-user, the useful check is not the daytime forecast alone but the full-day observed maximum at KSEA, because a brief afternoon spike is enough to set the result even if conditions later cool; automated monitors, webhook alerts and conditional orders are therefore best wired to the history page and to any airport observation feed rather than headline weather summaries. [1][2]

The main catalysts are the local forecast track, cloud cover, marine push timing and whether Sea-Tac sees an afternoon downslope or inland heat burst before the onshore flow returns. The current Seattle reading is only about 70°F with light wind and mostly clear skies, which shows benign conditions at the moment, but that does not alter the settlement rule unless the airport’s final daily maximum changes on the archived record. [2]

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seattle on July 22? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Review UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.