Highest temperature in Seattle on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seattle’s peak summer heat on 16 July 2026 will be measured at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport, with the market resolving to the Fahrenheit range containing the day’s highest recorded temperature. The current 0% YES probability implies the crowd expects no temperature to hit the specific threshold defined for a “YES” outcome, likely because the threshold is set far above historical norms for mid-July in the region.

Historically, Seattle-Tacoma’s highest temperatures in mid-July rarely exceed 95°F, with extreme outliers like the 2021 heat dome pushing records to 108°F at KSEA. Comparable cases from 2015–2024 show a tight distribution between 78°F and 92°F, making any threshold above 95°F statistically improbable without a rare atmospheric event. Programmatic traders should model this using historical Wunderground daily maxima for KSEA, applying a Poisson distribution to estimate the probability of exceeding the threshold, then back-testing against the 2021 anomaly to calibrate tail risk.

Key catalysts include the Pacific Northwest’s 5–7 day forecast from the National Weather Service, which tracks high-pressure ridge formation over the Cascades, and real-time satellite data on marine layer breakdown. A recent NOAA bulletin (12 July 2026) notes a strengthening subtropical ridge that could elevate temperatures if it persists through 16 July, though current models suggest only a marginal increase above baseline. Traders automating this market should monitor the 00:00 UTC 14 July forecast update and the 12:00 UTC 15 July model run for shifts in ridge intensity, as these are the primary dependencies for a heat spike.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seattle on July 16? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Review UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.