Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on July 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event is the peak daily temperature recorded at São Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport on 9 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius and resolved via Wunderground data. This market hinges on a single meteorological reading, programmatically approachable by bots that scrape historical Wunderground feeds for SBGR and trigger conditional orders when the temperature crosses predefined thresholds like 22°C or 23°C.

Historically, July is São Paulo’s coolest month, with average highs ranging from 11°C to 22°C and daily peaks rarely exceeding 22°C, making the current 0% probability for higher ranges statistically grounded [7]. Comparable cases show July 2026 forecast highs between 66°F and 81°F (19°C–27°C), with an average of 74°F (23°C), yet actual recorded highs in recent years cluster tightly around 22°C, reinforcing the market’s lean toward lower outcomes [2].

Traders should monitor Brazil’s ongoing heat wave developments, as recent extreme readings in Rio de Janeiro—perceived temperatures hitting 62°C—signal potential atmospheric anomalies that could shift São Paulo’s typical July profile [4]. While no official announcements have yet altered SBGR’s forecast, the dependency on regional heat patterns means any sudden escalation in southern Brazil’s thermal activity could act as a catalyst, warranting real-time Wunderground monitoring for SBGR to capture deviations from the 22°C baseline.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.