Highest temperature in Paris on May 25?

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Market context

On 25 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport will fall within one of several defined ranges. This metric captures a single-day maximum, resolved via Wunderground's historical weather data for that specific station, which serves as France's primary aviation meteorology hub. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, meaning the full 24-hour temperature record must be finalised before resolution occurs.

May temperatures in the Paris region typically peak between 18–24°C, though outlier days regularly exceed 25°C. Historical data from Le Bourget shows that May maxima have reached 29–30°C in roughly one-third of years over the past two decades, whilst readings above 32°C remain uncommon but not unprecedented. The current 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting range definitions or treating this as a calibration exercise; comparable spring-weather markets often show weak early signals that sharpen as the settlement date approaches. Seasonal patterns favour moderate outcomes, but late-May heat waves—such as the 2022 event that pushed French temperatures above 30°C—remain a material tail risk.

Traders monitoring this market should track European weather forecasts from mid-May onwards, particularly jet-stream positioning and Atlantic high-pressure systems. Météo-France publishes extended outlooks roughly two weeks in advance; significant revisions toward heat or cool patterns typically shift market probabilities sharply. For programmatic approaches, integrating Wunderground's API alongside ensemble forecast models (ECMWF, GFS) allows conditional order placement tied to specific meteorological thresholds, reducing manual monitoring overhead closer to settlement.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Paris on May 25? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.