Highest temperature in Paris on May 23?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 23 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport will determine which range this market settles into. The resolution hinges on a single daily maximum reading from Wunderground's historical data for that station, with settlement finalised by midday UTC. For automated traders, the key dependency is Wunderground's data pipeline; the site typically publishes airport station readings within 24–48 hours of observation, though delays can occur during system maintenance or data validation cycles.

Late May in the Paris region typically sees daytime highs between 18–24°C, though heat waves can push readings into the high 20s or low 30s. Historical patterns from 2015–2023 show that extreme outliers above 30°C occur roughly once per decade in late May, whilst temperatures below 15°C are rare but possible during unsettled Atlantic weather systems. The 0% crowd probability suggests markets are pricing in either a specific temperature range as the baseline expectation or reflecting uncertainty about which bin will capture the actual reading.

Traders monitoring this market should track European weather models from Météo-France and ECMWF in the week preceding 23 May, as these drive medium-range forecasts for high-pressure systems or frontal activity. Programmatic approaches would benefit from integrating Wunderground's API directly to cross-reference historical volatility at this station and set conditional orders around threshold temperatures—particularly around 20°C and 25°C boundaries, where range probabilities typically shift. The settlement window's noon cutoff means final readings must be confirmed by morning European time.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Paris on May 23? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.