Highest temperature in Paris on June 6?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 6 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport will determine which range this market settles into. The settlement mechanism relies on historical weather data pulled from Weather Underground's daily archive for that specific station, with the resolution timestamp fixed at 12:00 UTC on the settlement date itself. For programmatic traders, the key dependency is the availability and accuracy of the Wunderground API endpoint for LFPB (Le Bourget's ICAO code); any data gaps or corrections published after the settlement window closes could create disputes, though Wunderground's historical records are typically finalised within 24–48 hours of observation.

Paris's June temperatures show considerable year-on-year variance. Between 2015 and 2024, maximum temperatures on 6 June ranged from 18°C to 28°C, with a median near 22°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests the market may be mispriced relative to seasonal norms, or reflects uncertainty about which specific temperature band is being offered as the YES resolution criterion—a detail absent from the current description. Traders should verify the exact threshold before committing capital.

Monitoring Météo-France's extended forecasts from late May onwards will signal whether June 2026 tracks toward anomalous heat or typical early-summer conditions. The market's utility lies primarily in its simplicity for backtesting weather-data APIs and conditional order logic rather than as a hedging instrument for temperature-sensitive operations.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Paris on June 6? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Review UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Review UK?

Zero. Polymarket Review UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.