Highest temperature in Paris on June 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is the peak daily temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport on 28 June 2026, a date that falls within Europe’s current historic heatwave. Market data shows a 0% probability for the “YES” outcome, implying the crowd expects the temperature to stay below the specific threshold in question, despite recent extremes where Paris reached 44.3°C on 23 June and 40°C on 24 June[5][8].

Historical context frames this low probability against France’s record-breaking June, where the national thermal indicator hit 29.8°C and a southern station recorded 35.7°C[1]. While May saw Paris hit 33°C during an unprecedented streak[7], the current 0% crowd-implied probability suggests traders believe the 28 June peak will not breach the resolution range, even as the 2026 heatwave shatters every prior record across France, the UK, and Germany[4].

A power-user approaching this programmatically would monitor Meteo France’s daily bulletins and Wunderground’s real-time feeds for the Le Bourget station, watching for any sudden cooling trends or cloud cover that might cap the peak. The primary catalyst is the persistence of the heat dome, which drove Pissos to 44.3°C on 23 June and pushed the national index to its highest level since records began[9]; traders must watch for scheduled weather model updates that could signal a break in the dome before the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 28 June.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Paris on June 28? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Review UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.