Highest temperature in Paris on June 22?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Paris-Le Bourget’s highest temperature on 22 June will be determined by the day’s observed maximum in Celsius, not by an afternoon forecast snapshot, so traders should anchor to the station-specific Wunderground history page rather than Paris city forecasts. The market’s 0% YES implies the crowd is effectively discounting the upper temperature bands, but for a one-day weather contract that can change quickly if the heat plume shifts or cloud cover arrives later than expected.

Recent coverage pointed to a pronounced heatwave over Île-de-France, with forecasts for the week of 22–28 June describing a plateau of extreme heat from Monday through Thursday and peaks near 40°C, while Reuters reported France’s weather agency warning of temperatures reaching record highs and late-June peaks around 35–38°C, with some locations touching 40°C. That matters because a programme that keys off the airport station can be nudged by local boundary-layer effects, so a trader would model it as a threshold distribution around the most likely daily maximum rather than a single point estimate.

The practical catalysts are the morning and early-afternoon updates from Météo-France, any nowcasts on cloud cover, wind and convective development, and whether regional heat is slightly stronger or weaker than ensemble guidance. Programmatically, this is the sort of market to monitor via scripted pulls of the forecast and station observations, then map the predicted high into the market’s Celsius ranges before the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC. If later guidance confirms a sharper-than-expected cool-down, the tail above the current crowd pricing can compress quickly; if the heat holds, the higher brackets remain live until the official Wunderground observation is in.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Paris on June 22? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Review UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Review UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.