Highest temperature in Paris on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event hinges on the peak temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport on 6 July 2026, a date currently sitting in a settlement window that ends the following day. With the crowd-implied probability for any specific outcome at 0%, the market reflects extreme uncertainty or a lack of consensus on whether temperatures will breach historical thresholds. This zero probability suggests traders are either awaiting definitive meteorological data or suspecting the resolution source may not yet support a clear range.

Historical context frames this uncertainty sharply, as recent weeks have seen Paris endure record-breaking heatwaves with temperatures soaring to 44.3°C in southwestern France and nearly 41°C in the capital itself[2][3]. Météo France has issued red heat alerts for 54 departments, indicating persistent high temperatures across the clock[4]. These comparable cases suggest that while July 6 could see similar extremes, the 0% probability implies a disconnect between current forecasts and the specific resolution criteria, perhaps due to the narrow temperature buckets used in the market[6].

Traders should monitor Météo France’s daily bulletins and Wunderground’s live updates for the Paris-Le Bourget station, as these are the definitive resolution sources[1]. The second heatwave of 2026, projected to hit highs of 37°C in Paris, is the primary catalyst[9]. Any deviation from these forecasts, such as unexpected cloud cover or rain, could drastically alter the outcome. The settlement window’s proximity means real-time data from the weather agency will be critical for evaluating the market’s validity before the deadline[2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Review UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.