Highest temperature in Paris on July 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event hinges on the peak temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport on 2 July 2026, a date that historically sits within Paris’s warmest month but remains vulnerable to sudden cooling after intense heatwaves. Recent data shows France just endured its hottest day ever, with temperatures nearing 41°C in Paris and red heat alerts across western Europe[3]. However, the market currently assigns a 47% probability to 24°C as the high, with 25°C at 35%, suggesting traders are betting on a sharp drop following the June record[1]. This divergence from the recent extreme heat frames the current 0% YES probability on higher ranges as a reaction to the “recent cooling” narrative dominating collective sentiment[1].

Programmatically, a power-user would script a bot to monitor Météo France’s daily bulletins and Wunderground’s hourly archives for the Bourget station, triggering conditional orders if forecasts shift above 30°C. The key catalyst is the official confirmation of whether the second heatwave of 2026, projected to hit 37°C in Paris starting Wednesday, will persist through 2 July[7]. Traders must watch for updates on the red heat alert status, which currently covers 54 departments and indicates high temperatures persisting around the clock[4]. If the heatwave extends into eastern Europe as predicted, the probability of higher temperatures could surge, but the current consensus relies on the cooling trend observed after the June peak[3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.