Highest temperature in Paris on July 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Paris-Le Bourget will record its peak temperature for 17 July 2026 at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, with the market resolving to the Celsius range containing that figure. The settlement relies on Wunderground’s daily history for the station, capturing the single highest reading across all times on that date.

Historical July data for Paris shows average highs of 27.0°C, with the month being the warmest alongside August [2]. Despite this baseline, the current crowd-implied probability for any specific outcome sits at 0% for the leading YES option, which is anomalous given the frontrunner outcome of 28°C holds a 34% market share [1]. This divergence suggests the 0% figure likely reflects a liquidity or interface display error rather than a genuine forecast of impossibility, as 27°C and 28°C remain statistically probable outcomes aligned with the 27.0°C average [2].

Programmatic traders should monitor real-time Wunderground feeds for the LFPB station as the settlement window closes at 12:00:00Z on 17 July 2026. The primary catalyst is the live temperature update itself, which updates continuously; no external announcements or schedules influence the resolution. A script polling the Wunderground history endpoint at https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB will capture the definitive value, allowing automated conditional orders to execute once the daily high is confirmed. The 34% probability assigned to 28°C indicates the market expects a day slightly warmer than the 27.0°C average, a deviation consistent with typical mid-summer variability [1][2].

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.