Highest temperature in Paris on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market tracks the peak Celsius reading at Paris-Le Bourget Airport on 13 July 2026, with the current crowd-implied probability of a specific outcome sitting at just 1%. Programmatic traders typically model this by scraping historical daily maxima from Wunderground for the station, then applying a regression against the broader European heatwave index to forecast the day’s ceiling.

Historical baselines suggest Paris July afternoon maxima usually centre near 35–36 °C, with the leading market outcome currently assigned to 34 °C at 46% probability [1]. While extreme records exist—such as the 42.4 °C peak in Paris on 25 July 2019—these are outliers rather than the norm [3]. The current 1% probability likely reflects a specific, narrow temperature bracket that deviates significantly from the typical 33–36 °C range, making it a low-probability bet unless a severe anomaly is forecast.

Traders should monitor the Met France heatwave bulletins and the daily European heatwave schedule, as these dictate the settlement temperature. Recent severe heatwaves in western Europe, including the record-breaking 44.3 °C measured in Landes, demonstrate how quickly conditions can shift [8]. A conditional order strategy would trigger only if the 48-hour forecast for Bonneuil-en-France exceeds 38 °C, aligning the trade with the most probable settlement window.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Paris on July 13? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Review UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.