Highest temperature in Paris on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Paris’s highest reading on 1 August at Le Bourget is the settlement variable, so the useful angle is not the citywide forecast headline but the station’s *single-day maximum* in Wunderground’s history feed. For a programmatic workflow, this is a simple scrape-and-watch case: poll the daily history page, track the highest Celsius value, and stop updating once the first datapoint for 2 August has been published, because later corrections are outside the resolution window.[1]

The crowd is currently assigning **0%** to outcomes, but the market itself shows the logic traders are using: late-summer Paris maxima usually cluster in the high 20s, with recent model guidance cited on the market page pointing to **27–29°C** and the leading contract at **28°C**.[1] That sits near August climatology, where Paris typically reaches the mid-20s rather than extreme heat, so a zero-price tail implies the market is not seeing an obvious path to an outlier reading above the listed bands.[1][5]

The main catalysts are synoptic, not event-driven: traders should watch whether a high-pressure ridge builds over northern France, whether Atlantic flow or cloud cover limits afternoon heating, and whether any official heat advisories emerge from Météo-France. Recent reporting has shown how quickly French temperatures can jump into the 30s during regional heat spells, with Paris reaching 33°C in one weekend forecast and France recording record-level heat earlier in the summer, so intraday updates to station observations matter more than broad seasonal averages.[6][9][16]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Paris on August 1? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.