Highest temperature in NYC on May 24?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

LaGuardia Airport's recorded high temperature on 24 May 2026 will fall into one of several discrete ranges, from below 60°F through to 90°F or above. The settlement mechanism pulls historical data from Weather Underground's daily archive for that specific station, making the resolution objective and verifiable once the day concludes. Traders evaluating this market programmatically should note that LaGuardia's sensor sits in an urban environment with documented heat-island effects, meaning readings typically run 2–4°F warmer than surrounding areas.

New York's late May climate shows consistent patterns: the National Weather Service's 30-year normal high for 24 May sits near 73°F, with observed highs ranging from 58°F (1992) to 89°F (2012). The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a specific range or minimal trading activity; historical volatility across May's final week means any single-day forecast carries genuine uncertainty. Traders building conditional orders should account for the fact that spring weather systems can shift rapidly, and a coastal low-pressure system or early heat dome could push temperatures well above or below seasonal norms.

The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 24 May, giving traders until midday to adjust positions before LaGuardia's final reading locks in. Weather forecasts become more reliable 7–10 days out; traders using algorithmic approaches might flag this market for automated monitoring once mid-May forecasts stabilise. The Weather Underground API and historical data access make this market suitable for systematic traders building weather-dependent portfolios, though the discrete range structure requires careful position sizing around boundary conditions.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.