Highest temperature in NYC on May 15?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

New York City's maximum temperature on 15 May 2026 will be recorded at LaGuardia Airport and resolved against historical weather data from Weather Underground. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, meaning the final temperature reading must be confirmed before that timestamp. This market structure requires traders to assess seasonal norms, anomalous weather patterns, and the specific microclimate characteristics of the airport station rather than Manhattan's urban heat island effect.

May temperatures at LaGuardia typically range between 65–80°F, with historical highs occasionally reaching into the mid-80s during warm springs. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a narrow temperature band or insufficient liquidity across the full range of possible outcomes. Reviewing Weather Underground's historical daily records for 15 May across previous years provides the empirical baseline: traders can programmatically pull five to ten years of data for this specific date to calibrate their probability distributions and identify whether May 15 historically skews warmer or cooler than the surrounding month.

Catalysts affecting the outcome include Atlantic weather systems tracking northeastward in mid-May, which the National Weather Service typically forecasts three to five days in advance. High-pressure systems stalling over the Northeast can drive temperatures into the upper 80s or low 90s, whilst coastal low-pressure systems tend to suppress maxima into the 60s. Traders monitoring the GFS and NAM models from NOAA in early May will gain directional signals; conditional order logic could automate position adjustments as forecast confidence solidifies closer to the settlement date.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Review UK?

Zero. Polymarket Review UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.