Highest temperature in NYC on June 26?

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Market context

The real-world event in question is the peak daytime heat recorded at New York’s LaGuardia Airport on 26 June 2026, measured in degrees Fahrenheit and sourced from Weather Underground. This specific date falls within a period of historically volatile early-summer temperatures in the Northeast, where daily highs have recently swung between 77°F and 92°F, with June 2026 averages hovering near 84°F. A comparable case occurred on 11 June 2026, when the same station registered a high of 94–95°F, demonstrating that extreme heat is not uncommon in this window. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for the “YES” outcome suggests the market believes the temperature will fall below a specific threshold, likely under 90°F, despite recent patterns showing multiple days exceeding that mark.

Traders approaching this market programmatically should monitor the National Weather Service’s hourly forecasts for LaGuardia, particularly the 8:20 pm and 8:25 pm readings which recently recorded 81°F, alongside the broader trend of summery conditions persisting through the weekend. A key catalyst is the anticipated cold front moving from Baltimore to New England on Saturday night, which may bring scattered thunderstorms and cooler air, potentially suppressing peak temperatures on 26 June. Recent reporting from The New York Times on 5 June 2026 noted that heat surges in the Northeast are expected to intensify by mid-week, yet this specific forecast also warned of a sharp cooldown following weekend highs. For a power-user, integrating these dependencies into a conditional order strategy would require real-time data feeds from Wunderground and NWS, ensuring trades adjust dynamically to incoming storm warnings or humidity spikes that could alter the final temperature reading.

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Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Review UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Review UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.