Highest temperature in NYC on June 24?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event hinges on the peak Fahrenheit reading at LaGuardia Airport on 24 June 2026, a date historically prone to warm spells in New York. Climatological norms for late June show maximum temperatures frequently reaching 84°F, with the all-time record for this period hitting 101°F in 2025[3]. Recent data from June 2026 indicates daily highs oscillating between 77°F and 92°F, while the specific 23 June market resolved to 74–75°F, suggesting a cooling trend that may have influenced the current 0% YES probability for higher ranges[1][4].

A power-user approaching this programmatically would script a monitor to pull Wunderground history for KLGA, comparing the live high against the 74–75°F threshold that recently settled[2]. The primary catalyst is the incoming weather schedule for the final week of June, where forecast models predict highs climbing back toward 89°F as the month concludes[9]. Traders should watch the National Weather Service daily climatological reports issued at LGA, which confirm the actual maximums and dependencies on cloud cover or humidity shifts that could spike temperatures above the current implied range[3]. Recent forecasts for LaGuardia in June 2026 explicitly list daily highs up to 92°F, providing a concrete upper bound for conditional order strategies[4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on June 24? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Review UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Review UK?

Zero. Polymarket Review UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.