Highest temperature in NYC on June 21?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The relevant real-world event is the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 21 June, measured in Fahrenheit and mapped into the market’s settlement bands. For a programme that scores or hedges these contracts automatically, the useful object is not a citywide headline but the station-day maximum from Weather Underground, so a bot should key off the exact KLGA daily history page rather than broader NYC forecasts or Central Park readings.

The current 0% YES pricing sits against a seasonal baseline that is already warm: the National Weather Service lists LaGuardia’s late-June normal maximum at 83°F, with a record daily maximum of 98°F for 21 June. That makes the contract structurally sensitive to heat-wave days, not ordinary June weather, and it also means the outcome distribution is usually concentrated in a narrow band above the low-80s unless a strong ridge, stalled front or humid air mass pushes the airport well into the upper 80s or 90s.[3] Comparable temperature markets on other US cities have shown sharp repricing when forecast models converge on a hot spell, especially where marine influence or cloud cover can still trim the observed high.[2][5]

For traders using tooling, the main catalysts are the short-range forecast updates, any excessive-heat advisories, and the intra-day evolution of cloud cover, wind and sea-breeze penetration around LaGuardia. Because the settlement source is a single station and a single daily high, programmatic approaches usually watch the latest forecast consensus, then switch to live observation once temperatures are near the likely peak; after that, late cloud build-up or a coastal breeze can still change the final bracket even if morning guidance looked firm.[1][3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on June 21? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Review UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Review UK?

Zero. Polymarket Review UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Review UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.